According to a recent University of Alabama study, when you draft your next 10-K, it might be a good idea to put down your copy of Reg S-K and pick up a copy of “The Power of Positive Thinking.” That’s because, according to this CLS Blue Sky blog on the study, an upbeat 10-K correlates with improved stock performance, while a more downcast filing can result in your stock taking a hit:
Our results show that positive (negative) sentiment predicts higher (lower) abnormal return over days (0, +3) around the 10-K filing date, i.e., the filing period. Both sentiment measures also predict higher abnormal return over event windows of up to one month after the filing period. This finding suggests that the market underreacts to positive sentiment and overreacts to negative sentiment in the 10-K filing during the filing period. Moreover, both sentiment measures are significantly related to abnormal trading volume around the filing date.
By the way, it looks like Norman Vincent Peale was on to something – because the study also says that that companies with happier 10-Ks also produce better results over the course of the year than their more dour counterparts.
Transcript: “Joint Ventures – Practice Pointers (Part II)”
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– John Jenkins