February 20, 2026

Forward-Looking Statements: 9th Cir. Says No Safe Harbor for “Hypothetical Risk Factor”

While securities fraud claims based on alleged “hypothetical risk factors” aren’t likely to be a high priority for the SEC in the current environment, they continue to get some traction in private securities litigation. The 9th Circuit’s decision earlier this month in Const. Laborers Pension Trust v. Funko, (9th Cir.; 2/26) provides further evidence of that – and highlights the potential for these claims to preclude companies from relying on the PSLRA’s safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Here’s an excerpt from The 10b-5 Daily’s blog about the case:

In [Funko], the plaintiffs alleged that Funko’s “risk disclosures” about its ability to manage its inventory in the future “concealed the facts that Funko had already failed to manage its inventory and that its business, financial condition, and operations were already adversely affected.” The district court found that these risk disclosures were protected by the PSLRA’s safe harbor because the plaintiffs failed to adequately plead actual knowledge of their falsity. On appeal, however, the Ninth Circuit panel appears to have created a new exception to the safe harbor.

In particular, the panel concluded that because the alleged omission related to Funko’s current failure to manage its inventory, the risk disclosure “implicitly serves as a comment on the present state of affairs, because it suggests that the circumstance posing the risk has not yet occurred.” And, as a result, the risk disclosure “does not fall under the safe harbor for forward-looking statements because its falsity lies not in the failure to predict the future, but in the implicit assertion about the present that the risk identified has not happened yet.” In other words, if a plaintiff alleges an “affirmative misrepresentation theory” then the otherwise forward-looking risk disclosure is converted into a statement of present fact and is not subject to the safe harbor.

The blog notes that the 9th Cir.’s position here is unusual, and that taken to its logical conclusion could essentially gut the PSLRA’s safe harbor, because “virtually every forward-looking statement securities fraud claim is based on the alleged omission of some ‘undisclosed fact tending to seriously undermine the accuracy of the statement.’”

It’s worth pointing out that federal courts have long had a somewhat tortured relationship with the PSLRA safe harbor for forward-looking statements. If you’re interested in learning more about how judges have sometimes twisted themselves into a knot to avoid applying the safe harbor, check out this article that I wrote for The Corporate Counsel newsletter a few years ago.

John Jenkins

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