TheCorporateCounsel.net

While we can’t escape the constant reminders that we’re in the midst of a U.S. presidential election year, I didn’t realize 2024 is what WTW calls “the year of elections.” With “83 elections in 78 countries […] there will not be an equivalent number of elections held worldwide in any single year until 2048.” Yikes! Here’s more from this report by the Director of Political Risk Analytics at WTW:

Writing in early 2024, we cannot be certain how many of the elections scheduled for this year will in fact be held. Some of 2024’s contests will surely be postponed by budding autocrats. Other polling dates will be unexpectedly added to the annual calendar as parliamentary governments lose no-confidence votes and snap elections are called.

What is clearer, is that 2024 is very likely to play host to consequential elections. By some estimates, more than 4 billion votes will be cast in national polls in 2024 (owing in significant part to elections in India and the multinational elections for the European Parliament). That figure may not be reached again until after 2070.

What might these elections mean for macroeconomic and political conditions? Well, WTW says, generally speaking, soaring inflation means “it is not likely to be a good year for incumbents” and “changes of government are an opportunity for dramatic geopolitical realignments.” As an example, it cites the recent “change in the U.S. relationship with China,” which “has prompted companies to rethink their globalisation strategies.” In fact, Microsoft recently made the news after asking at least 100 employees in China to relocate given governmental tensions.

As Dave noted, the SEC’s rulemaking strategy can also be significantly impacted by changing administrations, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see a slowing down or pausing in rulemaking activity.

– Meredith Ervine