Say what you will about Elon Musk, the man has an uncanny ability to attract eyeballs, and his gargantuan SpaceX IPO, which priced last night, is the latest example of that.  Like everything Elon does, this deal is incredibly controversial, and for good reason.  Let’s just check off a few of the hot debating topics, shall we?

– Valuation.  The IPO’s initial public offering price values SpaceX at $1.77 trillion, which is a mere 100x revenue. NYU’s valuation guru Aswath Damadoran says it’s worth more like $1.25 – $1.35 trillion. Morningstar throws the proverbial turd in the punchbowl and says it’s worth $780 billion, or less than half the IPO valuation – and they’re far from the only valuation skeptic. Who’s right? The answer to that question should play out over the course of the next several months, because to paraphrase Rasheed Wallace, “Aftermarket Don’t Lie.”

– Uh, About the Aftermarket. . .  Buckle your seatbelts.  This deal is expected to have one of the most volatile aftermarkets in history. Even though this will be the largest IPO of all time, it only represents about 5% of SpaceX’s outstanding shares, and that small float is usually a recipe for volatility. Despite the sky-high valuation, it looks like there’s reason to expect a big opening day pop, but how the stock performs over the next several months is anybody’s guess.   

– Outsized Retail Allocation. One of the things you can usually count on with an IPO is that if it reaches down into the lower rungs of retail investors, it’s because there’s not enough smart money demand for the deal. In this case, SpaceX took the unusual step of locking in a price last week, and allocating up to 30% of the deal to retail investors. That put the squeeze on the banks to get investors to sign up for a price that’s locked in at a very high valuation despite, among other things, the past week’s tech rout, and they’re responding with unprecedented outreach to retail. Based on recent reports, it looks like institutional demand may well eat into that allocation, but if retail does end up with 30% of the deal and it tanks, it won’t take long for the politicians to get their knives out for everyone involved.

– Must Love Musk. Anyone who buys SpaceX stock should realize that although the company has a board of directors, its role is purely decorative when it comes to control over the Mercurial Mr. Musk. That’s because, as the prospectus discloses, “removal of Mr. Musk from his board and leadership roles (Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of our board) requires the approval of the holders of at least a majority of the voting power of the outstanding shares of Class B common stock, voting separately as a class.” I’ll give you three guesses as to who owns over 90% of the Class B common stock, and the first two don’t count.

– Prospectus “Sizzle” Aplenty.  Meredith has already weighed in on what a great beach read this 277-page prospectus would make, but what struck me – as it usually does with IPOs – was the mission statement. This is going to sound like an old man yelling “get off my lawn!” but on behalf of those of us whose understanding of the IPO process is based mostly on 20th Century experience, I’ve got to ask – when did it become okay for companies to include overheated mission statements like what’s set forth below in their prospectuses?

Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. To do this, we have formed the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth with unmatched capabilities to rapidly manufacture and launch space-based communications that connect the world, to harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery, and ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets

If you fed this into Elon’s Grok and asked it to summarize it in one sentence, my bet is that it would come up with something very much like “To Infinity – And Beyond!”  Elon’s definitely channeling his inner Buzz Lightyear with this one. And don’t even get me started on the photos – we old folks used to laughingly use rocket ships blasting off as the classic example of prospectus graphics that were certain to be non-starters with the Corp Fin reviewers. This prospectus has 18 pages of them!

As my investment banker friends might say, this deal obviously has “a lot of hair on it,” but you can also understand why it’s gotten so much hype. Take Morgan Stanley’s prediction that this company’s going to do $3.4 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIDTA by 2040, for example. I’ve also got to concede that while I’m not fond of Elon Musk, SpaceX has done things that are so mind-boggling that they’ve literally made my jaw drop.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how all this unfolds – can SpaceX live up to the hype and reach “To Infinity and Beyond!” – or will the aftermarket be a major buzzkill? Stay tuned.

– John Jenkins